UTEP Research Unit Publishes Regional Economic Forecast

Last Updated on December 17, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Originally published December 17, 2019

By UC Staff

UTEP Communications

The University of Texas at El Paso's Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) has released its projections for the region's labor markets, commercial activity, economic performance and more in "Borderplex Economic Outlook to 2021."

The University of Texas at El Paso's Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) has released its projections for the region's labor markets, commercial activity, economic performance and more in "Borderplex Economic Outlook to 2021." The report, which has been published annually by UTEP since 1998, is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D. (pictured), UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP Associate Director and staff economist. Photo by J.R. Hernandez / UTEP Communications

The report, which has been published annually by UTEP since 1998, is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP Associate Director and staff economist.

The latest issue of the forecast indicates that employment growth is likely to slow down in El Paso due to slower national economic growth projections, both north and south of the border. In spite of more moderate jobs growth, El Paso’s average personal income is expected to exceed $40,000 per person by 2021. Gross retail activity is projected to reach nearly $13 billion by 2021, while the median price for existing homes should surpass the $160,000 mark for the first time that same year.

Formal sector employment is likely to set new records in both Juárez and Chihuahua City during the forecast period. A slower outlook for international manufacturing activity hampers labor market conditions in both urban economies in 2021.

Expanding payrolls at the Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine and at Spaceport America allow employment to grow more quickly in Las Cruces than in other parts of the region. In response, total personal income is forecast to exceed $9 billion by 2021.  Personal income per person also sets a new record that year, reaching more than $40,000 for the first time in Mesilla Valley economic history.

Research published by the BRMP shows the effects of a changing business cycle on local economic performance. Multi-sector coverage of the metropolitan economies of El Paso, Juárez, Chihuahua City and Las Cruces is provided in the report. Those sectors include demography, employment, personal income, retail sales, residential real estate, transportation, international commerce, water consumption, and cross border manufacturing.